Last Friday, June 12th, the biggest IPO in the history of the stock market happened. SpaceX went public at $135 a share, a $1.77 trillion valuation, and a $75 billion raise — the largest stock-market debut ever, by a wide margin. And it got personal for me, because CNBC featured me in their coverage as one of the retail investors who scrambled to get in.
I put in for 20 shares. I got 11. And before anyone calls me a hypocrite — yeah, I felt the FOMO. I called it the Super Bowl of IPOs, and I meant it. But here's what I want to do that almost nobody chasing the hype is doing: actually read the numbers.
Once you understand the math behind a $1.77 trillion IPO, you'll understand exactly why I grabbed 11 shares for the experience… and why my real money stayed on the sidelines.
Why I bought in at all
Let me be straight about why I even requested an allocation, because it matters. I'm a content creator, and it's hard to report on the biggest IPO in history from the sidelines. You need a little skin in the game.
So part of it was simply to see what I could get and to tell you what the process actually looked like from the inside.
I'm also not going to pretend I'm above the hype. I chase a wave sometimes. But here's the difference, and it's the whole point of this series: 11 shares of a $135 stock is about $1,500.
Against my entire portfolio, that's a rounding error. It was never going to change my life either way. It's fun. It's a story. It is not an investment thesis. Feeling the FOMO but sizing it like a rounding error is the actual skill.
What actually happened — the numbers
SpaceX priced at $135 a share. That pinned the company at $1.77 trillion and raised $75 billion, making it the largest IPO ever — more than double the old record, Saudi Aramco's roughly $29 billion debut in 2019.
Then it opened at $150, briefly ran past $176 intraday, and finished its first day up about 19%. The demand was staggering: retail investors alone submitted more than $100 billion in orders, and total demand topped $250 billion — roughly three to four times the offering size.
So far that sounds incredible. Here's where you have to slow down and think.
Why it can't be the next Tesla
Everybody buying today is dreaming the same dream: this is the next Tesla. Let's test that with math, because the math is brutal.
When Tesla went public in 2010, it came out at a tiny valuation — under $2 billion. That's why it could do what it did. It grew from almost nothing into one of the most valuable companies in the world, a gain of well over 1,000%. That's the dream people are pricing in.
But SpaceX didn't come out small. It came out at $1.77 trillion. It debuted already bigger than Tesla is right now — one of the largest companies on the planet. So do the math on the dream. For SpaceX to 10x from here, it would have to become a $17.7 trillion company. To repeat what Tesla did, it would have to be worth more than every company on Earth combined, several times over. It's not happening. You cannot run early-Tesla math starting from the seventh-biggest company in the world.
The price already knows the story is huge
SpaceX is trading at roughly 94 times its revenue. The only part of the business actually making money is Starlink — the rocket side and the AI side are burning cash, and the company is sitting on an accumulated deficit of $41.3 billion. At that price, you're not betting they succeed. You're betting they already succeeded. The valuation basically assumes they've already made it to Mars.
It's like buying a championship team the day after they win the title, at championship prices. You're paying full freight for the trophy that's already in the case. Where's the upside?
But you can't bet against Elon
Let me be just as honest about the other side, because I am not a SpaceX hater. At all. I told CNBC it's hard to bet against Elon Musk in whatever he does, and that it's hard to argue he isn't one of the greatest entrepreneurs of all time. I meant every word. This man builds things nobody thinks are possible — reusable rockets, Starlink beaming internet down from space to more than ten million people. He has done the unthinkable over and over.
So this is not a question of whether SpaceX is an incredible company. It obviously is. It's a question of price. A great company and a great investment are two different things, and the difference between them is what you pay. Today, you're paying the highest price it has ever traded, on its very first day. Incredible company. Brutal entry.
My Tesla regret — and why it says pass
Here's where some of you are loading up the comments: "Mikey, you sold Tesla way too early and it cost you a fortune. Now you're passing on Elon's next company? Did you learn nothing?"
Fair shot. And yeah — getting out of Tesla early is one of the biggest trading mistakes I've ever made. I held it a couple of weeks back in 2018, took my little profit, felt smart, and watched it run without me for years.
But people get the lesson backwards. The lesson from Tesla was never "buy every Elon company at any price, forever." The lesson was "don't sell your winners too early." Those are completely different lessons. Passing on a $1.77 trillion stock on day one isn't me being gun-shy from Tesla — it's me finally applying the right lesson about exit discipline instead of the wrong one.
The exit-liquidity wall nobody's talking about
Here's the part almost nobody is discussing, and it's the biggest reason my real money stayed out.
The amount of SpaceX stock actually trading right now is tiny — only about 4% of the company. That scarcity is a big reason it popped. But the real flood is coming. Around December, the lockup expires. That's when everyone who has held SpaceX privately for ten, fifteen, twenty years can finally sell.
And a lot of them will. Honestly?
Good for them. They took the risk when nobody knew if this would work. They were patient for a decade or two. They earned the right to cash out. But now think about it from my seat as a buyer today. If I put real money in right now, at the all-time-high price, who am I buying those shares from down the road? I might just be handing my money to an early investor who's heading for the exit. I don't want to be somebody's exit liquidity. I don't want to be the last guy at the bar buying a round as everyone else grabs their coats.
Why I'll eventually sell my 11 shares
So what about my 11 shares? I'm going to sell them — eventually. Not because I think SpaceX is going to zero, but because of a portfolio lesson most people never learn.
An 11-share position I have no plans to ever add to is a wasted position. There's a point where too many little scraps of stock work against you — you over-diversify, you can't track any of it, and none of it moves the needle. I keep my portfolio tight on purpose.
And I already have my SpaceX exposure where it makes sense. I got into the Fundrise Innovation Fund ($VCX) before SpaceX ever went public, and SpaceX is a position inside that fund. So I had a little skin in this before Friday. That's plenty. The 11 shares were for the experience and the report — I'll trim them down the road. Not flipping them day one, by the way; brokerages penalize that. But that's not even the point. The point is discipline.
Would I ever buy it for real?
Maybe. I'm not religious about it.
But not like this — not on day one, at the highest price it has ever traded, with the insiders still locked up. I'd rather wait. Let the lockup pass. Let the early folks cash out. Let the stock find a real price instead of a hype price. Then pull up the numbers again. Ask me in 2027.
Until then, I've got my 11 fun shares, my little Fundrise exposure, and zero FOMO — because I understand the math. This is part of my Investing in Public series, where I document my real positions and my thinking in real time so we can look back together later. I'll report back after the lockup, and we'll see where this thing really trades.
Frequently asked questions
What was the SpaceX IPO price and valuation?
SpaceX (ticker SPCX) priced its IPO at $135 per share, which valued the company at $1.77 trillion and raised about $75 billion. It opened at $150, ran past $176 intraday, and closed its first day up roughly 19%. It is the largest IPO in stock-market history, more than double Saudi Aramco's previous record.
Can SpaceX be the next Tesla?
Mathematically, no. Tesla went public in 2010 at a valuation under $2 billion, which is why it could climb well over 1,000%. SpaceX debuted at $1.77 trillion — already larger than Tesla. For SpaceX to 10x from its IPO, it would need to become a $17.7 trillion company. The early-Tesla return cannot be repeated starting from one of the largest companies on Earth.
Why is the SpaceX valuation considered expensive?
At $1.77 trillion, SpaceX trades at roughly 94 times revenue. Only Starlink is currently profitable; the rocket and AI segments are losing money, and the company carries an accumulated deficit of $41.3 billion. At that multiple, the price already assumes nearly everything goes right.
When does the SpaceX lockup expire?
Around December 2026, roughly 180 days after the June 12 debut. Only about 4% of the company is currently trading, which fueled the first-day pop. When the lockup lifts, long-time private insiders can finally sell, which could add significant supply to the market.
Did Mikey Moran buy SpaceX stock?
Yes — 11 shares, after requesting 20, which CNBC reported in its IPO-day coverage. He treats it as a small "experience" position he plans to trim later, not a core holding. His larger SpaceX exposure comes from the Fundrise Innovation Fund ($VCX), which he held before the IPO.
Disclaimer
I am not a financial advisor or a licensed investment professional. This post is for educational and entertainment purposes only and reflects my personal opinions and my own portfolio decisions as of the publish date. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making any investment decisions.