In October 2025, I bought a thousand shares of a single stock in one click. Twenty-nine seventy-nine a share. And I felt smart doing it — I told myself this was my last chance to get in under thirty bucks.
It then proceeded to get cut almost in half.
The stock is SoFi. I’m down on it. And here’s the part that sounds insane: I’m still buying it. Every week I can. On purpose. This post is me explaining, completely honestly, why I keep buying a stock I’m losing money on right now — what I got wrong, what I think most people are missing, and the one real risk that could blow the whole thing up.
Quick note before we go further: I’m not a financial advisor. I’m a guy who has sold winners too early and bought tops out of FOMO, so take that as a warning label, not advice. This is just me showing you my actual portfolio and how I’m thinking. Do your own homework.
I caught FOMO on the way up AND on the way down
The start of this is embarrassing in a very normal way. I bought my first SoFi shares back in May 2022. Two hundred shares, around five bucks. I’d love to tell you I did deep, brilliant analysis. I didn’t. A buddy of mine from back home would not shut up about it. He’d put real money in, he was hyped, and I caught the FOMO. Plain and simple.
And right after I bought? It went down. Then it kept going down. So I did the classic beginner move — I held, not because I had conviction, but because I didn’t want to take the loss. Selling would’ve made it real.
Here’s the part that still bugs me. While it sat under five dollars, I should’ve been backing up the truck. That was the gift, and I didn’t take it. Lesson one: the moment that feels scariest to buy is usually the one you look back on wishing you’d bought more.
Fast forward to 2025. SoFi finally wakes up. It runs. And my FOMO flips to the other direction — the worse kind. The stock’s in the high twenties and I start telling myself a story: this thing’s going to fifty, maybe a hundred, get your shares now before it’s gone. So I buy in the twenty-sevens. The twenty-fives. The twenty-sixes. And then I drop the big one, a thousand shares at twenty-nine seventy-nine, because I was sure it was my last chance under thirty.
It was not my last chance under thirty. Not even close. The stock rolled over and slid all the way back into the teens.
I have zero problem admitting that. I bought near the bottom out of FOMO in 2022, then bought near the top out of FOMO in 2025. FOMO got me coming and going. If you’ve done something like that, you’re not an idiot — you’re an investor. We’ve all paid that tuition. Selling winners too early and chasing them on the way back up is the exact mistake I broke down in my piece on how Stanley Druckenmiller thinks about FOMO and exit discipline — it’s the most expensive habit I’m still unlearning.
I stopped watching the price and started watching the business
So why am I not running for the exits? Why am I adding?
Here’s what flipped for me. For a while, SoFi would do this maddening thing — report earnings, beat expectations, grow revenue, and the stock would go… down. I was frustrated. How do you beat and drop?
Somewhere in there I stopped watching the price and started watching the company. And the business kept growing. Revenue up. Profits showing up. The actual company was getting stronger while the stock got cheaper.
So now, with it back under twenty, I’m doing the opposite of panicking. I’m dollar-cost averaging down. My average sits around twenty-one fifty right now, and my honest hope — the part that sounds backwards to most people — is that the stock stays under twenty for a while. Because every share I buy down here drags my average lower.
Think about it like a brand you love going on sale. You don’t get mad — you stock up. If you believe in the company long-term, a lower price isn’t a loss. It’s a discount on shares you were going to buy anyway. Five years from now I might look back genuinely thankful that SoFi dipped under twenty and gave me time to load up.
That’s the whole reason I do this Investing in Public thing — I’m putting my trades and my thinking on the record, right now, so future me can look back and see exactly how present me thought about it. Win or lose.
“I like the company” isn’t a thesis — here are the real numbers
Let’s get into why I actually believe in this.
SoFi is profitable now. This isn’t a hope-and-a-prayer story anymore. In their most recent quarter they did about $1.1 billion in revenue, up roughly 40% year over year, with net income up triple digits versus the same quarter a year earlier. That’s not a company limping along. That’s a company executing.
And the earnings are climbing. On an adjusted basis they did somewhere in the high-thirty-cent range per share in 2025. Management’s guidance for 2026 is about sixty cents — more than 50% growth. Analysts are modeling earnings continuing to climb into the low-to-mid eighties of a cent range for 2027 (that’s a forward estimate, not a guarantee — nobody has a crystal ball).
Here’s the patience math, and this is the part I want you to sit with. Say I’m wrong about the stock popping. Say it’s still stuck around twenty dollars at the end of 2027. With roughly eighty cents of earnings, that’s a price-to-earnings ratio of about twenty-five — for a company growing earnings around 50% a year. That’s not expensive. For that kind of growth, that’s cheap.
You know my framework: every investment has a job. My ETFs do the boring, heavy lifting in the core of my portfolio. SoFi’s job is different. It’s my one big swing — my bet on a fintech trying to become a full digital bank, and actually pulling it off.
The dream: a growth stock that grows up into a dividend payer
Here’s the long-term destination. Right now SoFi should be plowing every dollar back into growth — that’s correct, I don’t want a dividend yet. But a lot of financial companies, once they mature and stabilize, start paying a one-to-two percent dividend.
What I want is for SoFi to grow up from a pure growth stock into a dividend-paying growth stock. That’s the holy grail — you get the appreciation and it starts paying you to hold it. It’s years out. But it’s the destination I’m buying toward, and it’s the same reason I lean on income-producing positions elsewhere in the portfolio while this one is still in pure-growth mode.
The one risk I actually watch: dilution
I’m not going to pretend this is risk-free — that’s how you lose trust. So let me tell you the thing I actually worry about: dilution.
Dilution in plain English: imagine you own a slice of a pizza. Then the company keeps cutting the pizza into more and more slices to raise money or pay employees. Your slice didn’t disappear — it just got thinner. You own a smaller piece of the same pie.
That’s been happening with SoFi. Their share count has gone from somewhere around 800 million shares a few years ago to roughly 1.3 billion today. That’s the answer to the riddle from earlier — how a company beats earnings and still drops. If they keep printing new shares, each share is worth a little less of the company, and that can cap the stock even when the business is winning.
You might remember the Facebook story — one of the founders, Eduardo Saverin, watched his ownership stake get crushed to a fraction of what it was. That was an extreme situation with bad contracts and a lawsuit, totally different from what SoFi’s doing, which is normal growth-stage stuff. But the principle is the same: every new share makes your slice a little smaller. So I watch the share count like a hawk.
People also throw around that SoFi “burns cash.” On paper, yeah — but a huge chunk of that is because they’re a lender. Making loans literally consumes cash up front; that’s the business model. That one doesn’t scare me. Dilution is the one I keep my eye on.
One thing that does give me some comfort while I keep buying down here: SoFi’s own CEO has been buying shares on the open market repeatedly through 2026, including purchases in the high teens. When the person running the company is putting personal money in at the same prices I am, it doesn’t make the thesis right — but it tells me management isn’t quietly heading for the door.
Am I missing the AI rockets? Maybe. I’m okay with that.
Last honest confession. There’s a part of me that watches AI stocks rip 50% in a month and thinks — am I missing it? Am I being slow and boring while everyone else gets rich on the rocket ships?
Maybe. But those same stocks that go up 50% in a month can go down 50% in a month. And here’s the thing about me — I’m an entrepreneur. I already carry a ton of risk in my businesses every single day. I don’t need my portfolio to be a casino too.
SoFi, for me, is the calculated bet. A profitable, fast-growing company at a reasonable price that I can buy patiently over years. That’s not boring to me. That’s control.
The plan I’m putting on record
Here’s the plan, on the record. I want to own ten thousand shares of SoFi. And yeah — I think there’s a real shot this hits a hundred dollars a share in the next five to seven years. That’s my goal, not a promise, and definitely not advice. But it’s written down now, so you can hold me to it.
That’s what investing in public means. If I’m wrong, you’ll watch me be wrong. If I’m right, we documented it together. Either way it goes in the journal — same as the SpaceX IPO trade I’m still not sure about.
So tell me straight in the YouTube comments: am I being a patient investor here, or am I anchoring to a loser and missing the AI rockets? Team patience, or team momentum? I actually want to know.
FAQ
Why is Mikey still buying SoFi if he’s losing money on it?
Because the price went down while the business kept getting stronger. Revenue, profits, and members have all grown. If you believe in a company long-term, a lower price is a discount on shares you were going to buy anyway — and buying down lowers your average cost per share.
What is dollar-cost averaging down?
It means buying more of a stock you already own as the price falls, on a regular schedule. Each lower-priced purchase pulls your average cost down. It only makes sense if your reason for owning the company is still intact — otherwise you’re just adding to a mistake.
What’s the biggest risk to the SoFi thesis?
Dilution. SoFi’s share count has grown from roughly 800 million to about 1.3 billion shares. When a company issues more shares, each existing share represents a smaller piece of the company, which can hold the stock price down even when the underlying business is growing.
Is SoFi profitable?
Yes. SoFi has posted multiple consecutive profitable quarters, with revenue around $1.1 billion in its most recent quarter, up roughly 40% year over year, and net income up triple digits versus the prior-year quarter.
Disclaimer: I’m not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. Everything here is my personal opinion and a record of my own investing decisions, shared for educational and entertainment purposes. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Stock prices, earnings figures, and analyst estimates referenced here are accurate to the best of my knowledge as of publication and will change over time. Do your own research and consult a licensed professional before making any investment decision.